Experts predict new US Iran conflict after November elections

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior Israeli security analyst, predicts that the United States and Israel will likely resume military operations against Iran shortly after the November 3 midterm elections. He argues that a third phase of the conflict could prove more destructive than the two previous rounds of fighting. This assessment comes as both nations prepare for potential escalation in the coming weeks.

Citrinowicz, who served in Israeli military intelligence for over twenty years, now works with the Institute for National Security Studies. He has previously noted that military strikes on Iran are unlikely to cause regime change and may instead widen regional conflict. He maintains that view and states that President Donald Trump faces limited choices in the Persian Gulf. The president currently has what Citrinowicz describes as only bad and worse options available to him.

The United States and Israel have engaged Iran in two separate wars over the last eighteen months. The initial conflict started in June 2025 with attacks on nuclear sites and concluded after twelve days with a temporary ceasefire. Hostilities restarted in February following a significant increase in U.S. military presence. That phase began with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Looking ahead, Citrinowicz expects the next stage of the war to target energy infrastructure, civilian assets, and communication lines. He specifically points to internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz as likely targets. He also suggests Iran might use its ground forces to conduct limited attacks on Gulf states that host American bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain. The goal of such moves would be to inflict maximum economic damage on the United States.

Since the summer truce broke down, both sides have avoided major new strikes on each other's territory. However, tensions remain high. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran continues to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have driven up global energy prices. On Thursday, President Trump accused Iran of trying to raise oil costs before the election. He claimed on Truth Social that Iran was creating fake hits and mines to achieve this goal.

Iran has outlined several demands for peace, including sanctions relief, reparations for damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart negotiations for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution believes the war has reinforced the revolutionary ideology of Iran's leadership. She warns that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah may retaliate against soft economic targets like airports.

The human cost of the conflict is significant. Western non-governmental organizations report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The United States has lost twenty-one service members, primarily in strikes on Gulf bases, while more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if President Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken about finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz suggests that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu maintain power by allowing for an emergency unity government. He warns that political calculations combined with an Iranian development could lead to an unnecessary attack. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment argues that diplomacy is not dead but has been constrained. He says Iran will only compromise under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit. He notes that asking Iran to change its identity is unlikely to succeed.